acaojnd.info

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

How can you or your business better manage its current interest rates?Four tips:1) Should You Have A Loan In The First Place?Interest rates are essentially a cost of doing business. Thus, just like any other cost to your company, if your interest rate is too high compared to the returns that those funds will bring in via increased revenue or through cost savings – then you are better off not taking the loan in the first place.What better way to manage high interest rates then not to have to pay them.And, if you already have the loan in place (say to buy some new equipment or inventory), if the loan is costing more than it is worth to the business sell off those assets and pay back the loan. It will be better for your business in the long run.2) Understanding Your Interest Rate:Most rates are based on some risk profile of the borrower. Either credit history, cash flow realization or use of funds.Think about it. A borrower realizes that running a business is not all that easy and simply walks away from their business loan. That is a big risk especially in this economy.Or, a business’s cash flow is barely enough to cover the loan payment to begin with then has a slow revenue period. Will that business be able to make the next loan payment?Or, a borrower wants funding to open a new online business. But, that business is an online gambling site that could be shut down by the government at any time.If you understand how and why lenders price loans, then you can work to mitigate those risk factors (like improving your credit and cash flow or running a legitimate business).Thus, you take away their reasons to charge a high rate or increase your interest rate. Even if you have already taken the loan, when your situation improves, go back to the negotiation table and threaten to take your business elsewhere.You can only help yourself through knowledge.3) Protect Yourself Before You Take The Loan:Small increases in interest rates really should not effect your payment all that much (unless it is for very short-term loans like under 12 months).Example: Let’s say you have a $100,000 business loan at 8% for 3 years. Then, your rate increases to 10%. Your monthly payment will rise less than $100 per payment. Not great but not really all that bad either. Here is why:When making your decision to take a loan, you should always understand what you are getting in return for that new cost. If a $100,000 loan costs you $12,000 over three years in interest, then those funds should return much more to your company over that same period. If it does not, you should not take the loan.But, you should also create a buffer in your revenue estimates especially if you know the economy is in a rising interest rate environment.It your rate does not rise, then that is pure benefit to your company. But, if it does, you are protected or have managed for it.Let’s say your business requires a 30% return on investment and a $100,000 loan will cost you $12,000 over its life. Thus, your company needs to realize some $145,000 to achieve that 30% ($100,000 in principle with the remaining to cover your interest costs and return requirement). Thus, you make sure or look for projects that will return at least that amount.Or, if you think your rate will rise or we are in a poor economy like we are now, then add a cushions. Only accept or look for projects that will return $150,000 or more. Thus, your interest rate can rise a few percentage points and your business will still realize that 30% return.The goal here is to manage your interest with your decision before you request any outside debt or funding by picking the right projects or getting a business loan for the right situation only.4) Paying More:You can always manage your overall interest rate by paying more in principal. Thus, instead of paying more in interest over the life of the loan to your lender; work to reduce the principal that they can charge interest against.A $100,000 business loan at 10% for three years has a payment of $3,227. And, if you pay the loan out, your total interest would be $16,162.But, if you add a little extra to your payment each month (say $580 or 18% increase in your payment) then your overall interest for the life of the loan would drop to $12,811 – essentially making your interest rate 8% (not 10%).Here, you are paying more to reduce principal (to your benefit) then to your interest (their benefit).Further, you end up paying off the loan 7 months earlier.The higher your interest rate gets (say with a variable rate that keeps rising), the more benefit paying additional principal will help.The bottom line is that in a rising interest rate environment, your will pay more. But, you can also manage your business loans to ensure that what you do have to pay is being paid to your benefit and not just going to your financial company.